Up to now the most pessimistic say or state with certainty domestic house price
From;    Author:Stand originally
The hand holds the insurance fund of heavy gold, do not plan to act as of Chinese real estate " help straw " . Yesterday, chinese of business of risk of money of domestic number one protects subordinate Chinese to protected asset management company to give out up to now one most pessimistic says or state with certainty: Domestic house price can fall 10 years, shrink 50% be complete likelihood. "Big in the risk that urban house price has collapse at any time, before residential price had be notted adjust adequately, insurance fund ought to determined and evasive. " go up in the seminar of learning of institute of Tsinghua university be in charge of yesterday, the Chinese keeps asset senior researcher Ling Xiuli is bright those who gave her to be in a group to be aimed at house price is newest grind sentence. This conclusion is published in insurance fund investment is praedial " open floodgate " overnight. Planning to allow insurance fund sortie first in draft of castigatory insurance law praedial. And the report that Dai Deliang of orgnaization of famous sale agent goes shows the international before this, gap of fund of Chinese building city is as high as 300 billion yuan, accordingly, the building city that longs for capital delivers the view of ask for help for a time to insurance fund. Look now nevertheless, of real estate of insurance business investment " Qian Tu " almost a darkness. The group that Ling Xiuli is in thinks: "In whole world less than comparing search on economic history China's at present higher house value income is compared, house price bubble of China has been on summit summit condition. " it is with Beijing exemple, 2007 income of every family governable is 66 thousand yuan, and the house inside 4 annulus all valence is every square metre eighteen thousand four hundred yuan, house value income is compared is 27.8 times, even if is the house price outside 6 annulus, the cordon tower above that also compares than income of international house value one times. And income comparing is in U.N. and the house price that world bank thinks 3 times to 6 times it is reasonable level, such " bubble " degree exceeded the Japan 1991 and the United States 1929 far even, was to exceed more the Hong Kong 1997 is mixed United States before borrowing the crisis to erupt. "Of tomorrow of Chinese house price drop the space will be breathtaking, forecast what exceed before look over a lot of orgnaizations far. Move from world economy history on cracked of residential price bubble is basic in light of the rule, in the near future, chinese house price drops 50% be complete likelihood " , ling Xiuli says. Accordingly, the most hopeful ending is: In future inside 10 years, residential price of China will drop. If residential price is adjusted with the means that drops quickly, "Moisture " squeeze dry when just be investment when opportunity comes. To this, group of service of finance of world of Su Li of tycoon of foreign capital insurance is chief day of article of investment officer Shenyang (MartinSenn) thinks this point of view is too pessimistic, "With respect to Chinese macroeconomic environment character, of Chinese estate market drop the likelihood won't be so tremendous. But anyhow, insurance company is necessary to disperse risk, reduce a loss. " responsibility edits: Long for Mu?

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